NWS Great Falls E-Mail Notification:

May 14, 2018 Afternoon Update on Flooding Concerns

 

Key Takeaways / Changes

 

  • Significant rises possible along the Sun River later this week, rises that may near or exceed levels seen during the 2011 flood

    • Please note: river forecasts are highly dependent on the current forecast precipitation amounts. These amounts will continue to be refined in the coming days and fluctuations in the forecast river crests are likely as well

 

  • Depending on how much precipitation falls, several other mainstem rivers may reach flood stage slightly earlier than originally forecast (by about 12 hours or so), including the St. Mary, Missouri, Jefferson, Gallatin, and Big Hole Rivers

 

  • Warm temperatures through Wednesday will aid in increasing snowmelt rates

 

  • We still expect scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday to give way to a more widespread area of showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday

 

Impacts

 

  • Expanding / worsening impacts expected later this week as warm temperatures and continued snowmelt are followed by another round of showers and thunderstorms. Areas not experiencing flooding now may soon as streams, creeks, and rivers begin rising again

 

  • Impacts along the Sun River may equal or rival those seen in 2011

 

Confidence

 

  • High = Above normal temperatures through Wednesday

 

  • Moderate = Sun River levels nearing or exceeding that of 2011

 

  • Moderate = Forecast precipitation amounts for Wednesday - Friday

 

Flooding Risk Public Service Announcement with closed captioning from Montana DNRC Floodplain Specialist Worby McNamee ⇒ https://t.co/wlDKRLG9g3

 

Please monitor our web site for the latest updates at www.weather.gov/greatfalls

 

You can also monitor the latest radar, river gauge, rainfall forecast, SWE information and more at our River and Water Supply Decision Support Page

 

Do not reply to this email. Please direct e-mail responses to tfx.spotters@noaa.gov

 

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